A Retrospective Validation of Population Projections between Southern and Northern Nigeria

Dominic C. Nwabenu *

Delta State Polytechnic, Ogwashi-Uku, Nigeria.

Abel Arharhire

Department of Mathematics, Delta State University, Abraka. Nigeria.

Onome F. Ohwojeheri

Department of Mathematics, Delta State University, Abraka. Nigeria.

*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.


Abstract

Population size of Nigeria has gained global attention as one of the largest in the world, while the country remains one of the poorest. The actual population of Nigeria has been a subject of controversy because of her inability to conduct a census that is acceptable to all her citizens. Models have been developed through several studies to project Nigeria’s population in the absence of a reliable census. This research was therefore designed to investigate the internal composition, and as well cross – validate the projected population figures using public Primary School Enrolment and extent of Voters participation in general elections between 1999 and 2020. Data for the research were obtained from the records of Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the National Population Commission, the Independent National Electoral Commission and the Federal Ministry of Education. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS package. Results from analysis showed that there has been a consistent proportional increase in population figures of both Northern and Southern Nigeria, despite that the growth rates has not always been in favour of one region. Between 1991 and 2006, the population growth rate of the Northern Nigeria was 4.2% and Southern Nigeria recorded 3.5%. From 2006 to 2016, Southern Nigeria has a higher population growth rate of 3.9% as compared to 3.6% for Northern Nigeria. For the entire nation, a growth rate of 3.85% and 3.77% were obtained for 1991 – 2006 and 2006 – 2016 periods, respectively. Findings also showed that public primary school enrolment data and records of voters’ participation in general elections did not display the same pattern of growth as observed in projected population figures. The need for an actual headcount is implied as an imperative by this study.

Keywords: Population growth models, mathematical models, economic development, economic growth and sustainability


How to Cite

Nwabenu, Dominic C., Abel Arharhire, and Onome F. Ohwojeheri. 2025. “A Retrospective Validation of Population Projections Between Southern and Northern Nigeria”. Asian Research Journal of Current Science 7 (1):377-87. https://doi.org/10.56557/arjocs/2025/v7i1158.

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